Written by JL Murtaugh Monday, 13 April 2009 15:40
Yes, it’s never too early to project. The club is off to one of the better starts in its history (played four, won two, drawn two, lost none) and there are commensurately high expectations on this season’s team by ownership, fans and the playing staff themselves. As we break into the meat of the league schedule this spring, let’s analyze some benchmarks for achievement using data from the last eight seasons. Looking at historic numbers in the East and league-wide can give us an excellent idea where we need to be in October in order to collect hardware and secure continental qualification.
The Fire’s Last Eight Seasons
Emotional ups and downs have dotted the landscape of our last eight years, but there is some consistency in our final league point totals over that period. When dismissing the shortened season in 2001 (53 points in 27 played) and the very unusual 2004 season which we failed to qualify for the playoffs (33 points in 30 played), the Fire never finished with less than 1.3, nor more than 1.7 points per game in any given year. Our eight-year PPG average since 2001 is about 1.5 points, for a projected 30-match total of 45, a mark surpassed in three out of the last four seasons. For comparison, DC and Columbus’ eight-year PPG is about 1.41, KC Wizards’ about 1.37, and New England’s slightly higher at about 1.55 PPG.
Meeting the Mark
However, we all know what we’ve done over the past eight years, and particularly the last several – where we’ve fallen behind competitors in the East and overall standings denying us coveted CONCACAF places or home-field advantage in the playoffs (particularly for the conference final). With our talent, depth and -- let’s face it – immense pressure to win big this time out, what are the targets we need to hit to assure ourselves of needing a new trophy cabinet this Christmas next?
Let’s start by looking at the numbers for the second placed club in the Eastern Conference since 2001. This is a number that should help indicate – at minimum – what is necessary to secure home-field in the first round and keep us solidly in the mix for the league final and a CONCACAF Champions’ League place. A caveat: Technically the Fire was in the Central Division in 2001 and 2002, but for the purposes of this evaluation we’ll sort Chicago and Columbus into the East. Looking over the totals, the Fire have come in second twice in eight years – last season with 46 points, and second in the “theoretical Eastern Conference” in 2001, where we finished a shortened season with 53 points in 27 matches. The final standings were based on PPG that season and Miami ended with an equal point total and one less match played giving them the nod. The eight-year Eastern second place PPG average is approximately 1.55 for a 30-match projection of 47 points. Columbus’ regular season dominance of the East helped to mitigate our total standing up last season despite falling short of the average, but 47 is a number we should be expected to hit at minimum to avoid heads rolling after the final whistle blows.
But our expectations aren’t to meet last season’s accomplishments; we’re out to surpass them. So, winning the East has to be our primary objective this regular season, guaranteeing us the opportunity to host the Conference Final at home and in all probability locking up a Champions’ League place automatically. As any Fire fan witness to the last two Conference Finals we’ve competed in (@ NE Revs in 07, @ Columbus in 08) the results and our collective joy would be measurably different had those contests taken place at 71st and Harlem. In big matches like these, location can make all the difference. The Fire last won the East in 2003, with 53 points in 30 matches for a PPG of 1.76), a number also good for the MLS Supporters’ Shield (indicating the regular season title). The average PPG of the last eight Eastern champions is approximately 1.75 for a 30-match projection of 53 points. But be forewarned – 53 points has not been sufficient any of the last four seasons to take the East. Columbus finished with 57 last season, DC with 55 in 07 and 06, and New England with 59 in 2005. While 53 points will get us in the conversation, we’ll need to aim higher to guarantee our finish.
Shoot for the Stars
In eleven years, the Fire has captured the Shield only once, in that 2003 quite-nearly-triple-championship season, and at the relatively low number of 53 points (1.76 PPG). In all likelihood, 53 points will not be sufficient to win the conference, much less recapture the Shield and its automatic CONCACAF place. The eight-year Shield-winning team PPG average is approximately 1.84, for a 30-match projection of 56 points. Two out of the last four seasons have seen numbers beyond that (57 for Columbus last year and 64 for San Jose over a 32-match season in 2005). This surpasses the Fire’s average over the same period by around a third of a point a game, indicating that a different sort of attitude and killer instinct will need to accompany this year’s group of players if they are to hit those heights. Regularly dropping points at home, in particular, has got to stop. No shield-winning team in the last eight seasons has had more than three losses at home, and then only once with DC in 2006. The average home PPG for regular season winners is approximately 2.24, or roughly 34 points out of a projected 15 home matches.
And to take this further, what kind of mark must the Fire hit if they are to cement their place in the pantheon of great teams ever to compete in this league? Of course, so much can be dependent on the playoff lottery at the end of every year, just see our own 1998 playoff victories over juggernaut LA Galaxy and DC United teams for proof. Our peak regular season performance is 58 points in 2000. San Jose’s 64-point season in 2005 is often regarded as perhaps the best regular-season performance in league history, but LA actually finished with 68 in 1998. Aside: no one remembers, of course, because we whooped their butts in the playoffs. Yes, this does demonstrate quite starkly that there are times when regular-season point totals do squat for a team’s legacy when it comes to the playoffs; but no one would ever turn down the opportunity to be better-placed then all their opponents at the league’s conclusion. Consider that when the Fire has had home field until the final, we have never failed to reach that match (2000 and 2003) and moreover, several of the upsets over higher-placed teams were by us (LA in 1998, DC in 2005 and 2007). Even in 1998, the deciding final match ended up being in Chicago due to the road victory at LA in the first of a ‘best-of-three’ series. Each time we’ve made the final, we’ve also hosted the match ensuring our ticket there.
A goal of 60 points (2 PPG) is both achievable (we’re already on-pace after four matches) and of a quantity to make the 2009 Fire team amongst the best ever to wear the shirt or play in this country.
How do we get there? For 60 points, we’ll need to keep our current 2 PPG pace all year, or 52 points in the remaining 26 matches. If we suppose (for the sake of demonstration) winning the lion’s share of our remaining home matches (11 of 14) we have 33, meaning 19 more must come from home draws or road points. Obstacles are many to this goal, with Superliga this summer and international callups, but even to this point we’ve seen a tenacity and fight to the squad beyond anything present the last few seasons with all our results so far completed in the face of adversity (or absurdity in the case of some referee decisions). If this becomes routine the season could give even the most legendary remontadas at Real Madrid a run for their money as well as necessitate defibrillators at every aisle of Toyota Park. Every last squad player (down to you, Peter Lowry) will need to perform at their highest all year in order to meet the number.
Optimistic? Foolish? Yes, to both. But after an eleven-year league championship drought no one could have foreseen during the heights of 1998, great expectations are ideal sustenance to a ravenous club lusting for nothing less than total victory. Gathering sixty points this year would satiate those cravings and make certain there will not be a twelfth year of hunger.
TrackBack URI for this entry
Subscribe to this comment's feed
Of course. I acknowledge it's a bit crazy, but if we're aiming to be as good as we're made out to be, let's get an idea what we need to do over the rest of the year.
As for tying twice for the shield, yeah that's technically true points-wise but we lost it both times on a tiebreaker...
Nice piece JL. I think it would be almost impossible for the team to hit 60 points this season but it is a certainly a goal they should be aiming for. We all know that the league is very strong especially in the East. If the Fire can win 12 of its home games, I think it is very possible we could get close to 60. We have had a great start to the season but the game against a red hot KC will be our toughest so far. If we can get 3 points against them it would be fucking massive.
I think you're insane predicting sixty points based off of only four games. Stats like you're using are lazy and show no concept of what it means to play the actual games.
Anyone who's seen our first four games can't possibly expect this team to be anywhere near as successful as you claim they will be. They have a lot of work to do to be a real winner.
Seriously, you may have a screw loose.
Joe, with the style of argument you use (or the lack thereof), your comments are inane and dissmissable. Please, elucidate for us how the stats used are "lazy" and/or how they "show no concept of what it means to play the actual games".
That being said, I would rather be a loon and shoot for 60 than be a schmoe and simply resign myself to say that based on the lack of defeat in 4 games (now 5), that this team is not capable of such a lofty goal. Has the team come out and KILLED everyone they've played, no? But have they been getting it done? Yeah, to a certain degree....points from every game show that. And that IS the sort of grit it will take to get to 60. Probable? Not likely. Worthy aspiration? HELL YES.
